The Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Insect Pests: Non-linear Population Dynamics, Evolutionary Responses and Implications for Crop Production and Pest Management
Keywords:
Climate change, Insect pests, Range expansion, Phenological mismatch, Integrated pest management, Food securityAbstract
Climate change is altering insect pest behavior, distribution and crop damage worldwide. Rising temperatures, changing rainfall, elevated CO₂ and more frequent extreme weather events are driving these changes. This review synthesizes recent findings on climate driven changes in agricultural insect pest dynamics and their implications for crop protection. The findings show that pests are moving toward the poles and to higher elevations, completing more generations per year and causing greater crop damage. Temperate regions face the largest increases in pest pressure, while tropical species are more vulnerable to warming as they already live close to their thermal limits. Shifts in pest emergence timing often create mismatches with natural enemies, weakening biological control. Some insect species are evolving in response to climate change, but others cannot adapt fast enough. Non-linear responses, such as temperature thresholds for winter survival, mean that pest pressure can increase suddenly once critical limits are crossed. Crop losses from insect pests are projected to increase substantially with warming, threatening global food security. These losses are expected to hit smallholder farmers in developing countries the hardest. Climate smart pest management, which combines monitoring, predictive tools and ecological approaches, offers a way forward. However, significant gaps remain in understanding how multiple climate stressors interact and how pests evolve in response to warming. More research is needed, particularly in tropical regions where data are scarce.
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